HowdoestheSNPwanttousetheoil？

AlthoughNorthSeaoilproductionpeakedin1999，therearestillanestimated20billionbarrelsofoillefttobepumpedout。

ThisisthefoundationoftheSNP’scaseforindependence。

AssumingScotlandweretoexercisecontroloveralltheUKoilfieldscurrentlygovernedbyScottishlaw，itwouldbeentitledtoabout90%oftheoil。

Fromthis，SNPleaderAlexSalmondsaysthepartywillcreatea￡90bnScotlandOilfund，alongthelinesofNorway’snationalpensionfund，withintenyears。

Norway’sownpiggybankisworth￡123bn，settogrowto￡250bnby2010。

TheauthoroftheOxfordEconomicsreport，formerTreasuryadviserAlanWilson，saysthatin2004-2005GovernmentspendinginScotlandcameto￡45。

9bn。

Withataxtakeofjust￡34bnto￡35bn，that’sstillanannualdeficitofabout￡10bn。

TheSNPdisputesthefigure，sayingitdoesnottakeoilrevenuesintoaccount。

However，oilrevenuesforthatperiodwerejustover￡5bn，stillleavinga￡5bnblackholetoplug。

Sowhatotherindustriessupporttheeconomy？

AsisthecaseeverywhereelseintheUK，themanufacturingindustryisshrinking，butfinancialservices，especiallyinEdinburgh，arethriving–thesectorneardoubledinsizebetween1998and2005，saysTheObserver。

AccordingtoGordonBrown，independencewouldputthesectoratrisk，asalmost75%ofitsworkisforEnglishclients。

Thiscouldmeanthelossof125，000jobs。

Butthishasbeendescribedas“patentlyabsurd”byformerRoyalBankofScotlandbossSirGeorgeMathewson。

“Currently，ahugeproportionoftheEnglishfinancialservicesmarketissuppliedbycompaniesintheUS，inHolland，Germany，Ireland，etc。

GlobalisationishereandScottishcompanieshaveembraceditandindeedhavebenefitedfromit。

”

CouldScotlandbecomea‘CelticTiger’？

At1。

7%，Scotland’sannualeconomicgrowthtrailstheso-called‘arcofprosperity’。

SmallcountrieslikeIrelandboastgrowthof5。

2%，Icelandison3。

7%andNorway3%。

Thecountrylagsininnovationtoo–corporatespendingonresearchanddevelopmentat1。

5%ofGDPisbelowtheUKrateof1。

7%，whilepatentfilingsat2。

1per10，000ofthepopulationisbelowthe3。

1figurefortherestoftheunion。

ScotlandhasalottodotocatchupwiththerestoftheUK，letalonethelikesofIreland。

ButtheSNParguesthatwithfullfiscalautonomy(ineffectthepowerofHolyroodtosettheirowntaxes)Scotlandcouldachievesimilarratesofgrowth。

Thepartyproposesdroppingcorporationtaxto20%，whichwouldbringitindirectcompetitionwiththerestoftheUKon28%。

ButdespitepointingtoIreland’sprosperityasablueprintfortheScottisheconomy，ScotlandwouldhavetothinkofmatchingIreland’scorporatetaxrateof12。

5%ifwastodoanythinglikethat，saysHamishMcRaeinTheIndependent。

Onlythatmighthelpit“becomeamagnetfortalent”，asIrelanddidinthelate1980swhenitbegandrawingexpatshome。

WouldtheUKmissScotland？

Quitepossibly。

AccordingtoSNPfigures，theWestminsterTreasurywouldlose￡64。

5bninoiltaxrevenueinthesixyearsafterindependence。

DouglasMcWilliams，directoroftheCentreforEconomicandBusinessResearch，saysthere“isalsoaquestionofeconomicweight，intheEUforexample。

TheUKeconomyisbiggerthanthatofFrance，buttheEnglisheconomyisnot。

ThatcouldhaveanimpactoninfluenceinBrussels，”hetellsTheObserver。

Haven’twebeenherebefore？

ThisisnotthefirsttimeWestminsterhasfrettedoverScottishclaimstoNorthSeaoil。

Inthemid-1970s，thethenScottishOfficeeconomistGavinMcCronesaidthatNorthSeaoilwouldprovideanindependentScotlandwith“embarrassinglylargetaxsurpluses”。

Notsurprisingly，hisfullreportonthesubjectwasnevermadepublic。

Nevertheless，inordertosatisfyScottishfervourforsomesortofautonomy，in1974theLabourgovernmentatthetimeproposedaScottishAssemblywithcontroloversomeaspectofdomesticpolicy。

Thesubsequentreferendumrequiredthat40%oftheScottishelectoratewouldhavetovoteinfavourinorderfortheproposaltopassinsteadofasimplemajority。

Intheevent，thevotewasindecisive–33%votedinfavourand31%against。

NakedTextNakedText